6 July 2012

TRANSIT TO INDIA AND MY THOUGHTS ON IT






MY THOUGHTS OF TRANSIT TO INDIA AND FEW ANALYSIS


1. Direct Economic Implications
the transit is going to be a two edged weapon for Bangladesh, the economic implication of giving transit alone can open floodgate of new stream of revenue for the country and at the same time it might bring a whole influx of problems for the local economy, farming, culture, employment, eco system, urbanisation, socio- religion influence and political dynamics.
The transit alone can generate a whole new avenue of economic activities for the whole of the country. A comprehensive execution plan and its precision implementation can change the transit hub and its inhabitants.
The Transit can generate
            . 1. Direct employment of minimum – 1 million people earning £ 2.50 a day x 24 day= $6 mil a month from wages
            2. Part time employment for another 2 – 300,000 people which would bring another =
$ 700, 00.00 month
            3. Revenue can be earned from
                        a.         Road side assistance – recovery
                        b.         Spare part and Motor parts
                        C.         motel + hotel
                        d.         Restaurants and Shops
                        e.         Parking
                        f.          Services station and fuel pumps and repairs workshops
                        G.         offices and secretarial services
                        h.         Banks and Insurance for motors and others
                        j.          Foreign currency exchange (beaure de change)
                        k.          Entertainment and amusement parks
                        l.          Other pay as you go public services
Incomes


Services above will (a- i) can generate around £ 100, 000. 00 per year which is a huge boost for the economy of the hubs concerned and directly and indirectly the hubs will employ around 10,000 people. This alone will bring another solid stream into the exchequer of the country.

To the best of analysis and assessment its augmented that, in total of 8 – 9 different transit hub will be serving around 1000 drivers and 500 other different personnel's with each spending around £10.00 per day alone generates a staggering amount of £ 36,000,00.00 per year
There will be at least 1000 lorries will plying in the road at any given time worth carrying minimum 15 hundred tonnes of cargo daily costing a fuel revenue of $100,00.00 a day.


the biggest revenues will be the port handling and documentation and customs charges which is around 1% to 2% of the value of the goods and as far the assumption goes that seven of this states will be turning around which can be anywhere in the range of $ 1 - $1.2 billion per year. Bangladesh presently imports around $ 37 billion dollar worth of goods per year and these seven states will need to import once this is open for them to import around $30- $ 50 billion worth of import and 25% worth of export. Timber export alone can generate in excess of $ 10 billion dollar.

It is no doubt leaves Bangladesh in a win win situation in all aspects provided the bilateral bargaining and revenue sharing arrangements are put in place tightly.

Sectors of revenue
manpower
Rate in USD
daily
Monthly
Yearly
Fulltime employment
1,000,000
 $           2.50
 $2,500,000.00
 $60,000,000.00
 $        720,000,000.00
Part time
300,000
 $           1.00
 $  300,000.00
7,200,000
 $          86,400,000.00
Services


 $                     -  
 £ 1,000,000.00
 $          12,000,000.00
Petty Cash
10,000
 $         10.00
 $  100,000.00
 $ 3,000,000.00
 $          36,000,000.00
Fuel and others


 $  110,000.00
 $ 3,300,000.00
 $          39,600,000.00
other Income



$10,000,000.00
 $        120,000,000.00
Import Revenue




 $  12,000,000,000.00
TOTAL




 $  13,014,000,000.00
















2. Selection of Appropriate Mode;
The appropriate mood of transit can never be ascertained from the outset but there are tentative routes for out bound and inbound cargoes can be planned from day one; without these selected routes no transit for those 7 states with a population of circa 40 million cannot be undertaken by Bangladesh, If it's taken then the pressure of this extra movement and volume will grind the present infra structure to halt.
It is imperative that, these transit cargoes and its routes for the individual destinations must have to be chalked out before hand otherwise the volume will clog all exiting infrastructures.
seven sister holds 7% of total India's land mass with 4% of the total population of India resides in these landlocked enclaves; which have been able to see the light of the modern development and enhance her socio economic conditions due to heavy costs involved in transportation and the precarious terrain which itself hindered half the effort.

For all transit purposes a new deep sea port is needed to build in and around Urirchor – shondip channel – hatia channel with megna and chandpur estuary and megna's tributary in mind – cost to that effect has to be borne by the 3rd country as it will only handle their imports and exports.
Tentative routes for road transport to
            a.         Tripura
            b.         Mizoram
            c.         Manipur
            d.         Arunachol Prodesh
            f.          Nagaland
What is envisaged that, the general area kabirhat becomes the main hub all logistic movement inside Bangladesh with 7 states 7 different jetties and WHARFS (ware houses at the river (sea) front).
The road from Kabirhat will connect via Ramgarh to Sabroom and the it will connect Indian N44 and N 44A.

A new purpose built road link from kabirhat to Ramgarh bridge to Sabroom to the made to;
1.     Route 1 for Tripura – Kabirhat – porshuram- Udaipur- bishalgor – Agartola  155 KM
2.     Route 2 for Mizoram – Kabirhat – Porshuram- shantiBazar – Amanpur – Teliamura – (via N44A) – Aizwal – circa 410 KM
3.     Route 3 for Manipur – Kabirhat- Porshuram- shantiBazar - Amanpur – Teliamura-(Via NN44A ) – Aizwal – Imphal (Via 54) – (via 27 and N37) – 810 KM
4.     Route 4 for Arunachol Prodesh – Kabirhat- Comilla-  sylhet- Tamabil- ( Via  N44 ) – tezpur – Lanka – Itanagor – 1000 KM
5.     Route  5 for Nagaland (Also serve Assam and Meghalaya Partly) Kabirhat- Comilla-  sylhet- Tamabil- ( Via  N44 ) – Lanka – Dimapur – Imphal  - 785 KM

Two new river transport channel from the deep sea port
1.     via River Meghna to Ashugong- Sunamgong – Chattak (Meghna – Surma)
2.     via River Meghna to Ashugong- Fazil Pur – Balagonj- Fenchuganj- Beanibazar- Zakigonj-  Karimgonj (Megna – Kushira ) – Barak to Shilchor – Shillong (by road)

Likely Estimation
Costs for building the deep sea port plus these roads alone will cost around
Item
Cost Per unit
One way carriage
dual carriage way
Lanes
total distance /area
amount
Route 1
 $                   15.00
69 Km
69 km
2
552
 $              8,280,000.00
Port





 $    10,000,000,000.00
Warehouses
 $                 100.00



350,000
 $            35,000,000.00
Land






acquisition
 $             5,000.00



500
 $              2,500,000.00
Land for road





 $              5,000,000.00
River  Improvement





 $            30,000,000.00
Total





 $    10,080,780,000.00

EC HARRIS TENDER PRICE INDEX



Options Available

Existing infra structure is no way capable to cope with these increased pressure, any added load on the existing facilities will hamper the day to day operation of our own need. The Volume of cargo that presently Bangladeshi Port handles are
Chittagong Port Authority; in excess of 43 million tonnes plus 556,000 container per year
Mongla Port Authority; in excess of 870,000 tonnes
The present facilities are integral part of our own GDP growth and it will not be feasible to add another almost equal quantum of load on equipment, manpower and facilities and paraphernalia.
In the light of the above apart from setting up these above mentioned bespoke facilities there is no way Bangladesh standing any chance to cope with this new venture.
It is very easy to envisage that, the total volume of cargo inbound will be around 2 million tonnes per year and plus another 500,000 containers on top of it the export will be around 25% of the inbound volume.
The age old port facilities and the lighter age, the stevedoring, the berthing, documentation, surveillance, taxations and tariffs and storage and logistic and transpiration will totally collapse our existing infrastructures.

Hence, there is no other alternative but to set up whole new bespoke state of the art new facilities for this purpose only.




Environmental hazard
The influx of haulage vehicle, the support transport and diesel operated rail train and the river and ocean going vessels will produce an extra quadruple amount every year. Bangladesh will be become one of the highest carbon emission producers in the reason. In 2005 Bangladesh was producing 0.14% of world's carbon emission and with this extra traffic it will easily produce   enough CO2 to reach our normal target of 2050 by 2015.
the ecological imbalance will hamper the climatic and arable land will lose fertility, the deforestation to built these mega roads will reduce wild life and the catastrophic floods and natural calamities will ruin the costal belt vegetation, population and the economy, the coral reefs will disappear thus the sea erosion will eat up the presently dilapidated coast line and will cause sea bed rise and cause cyclonic tsunami and water logging due to raised sea bed.
To minimise these catastrophic consequences a comprehensive master plan of a forestation, carbon Emission offsetting measures, controlled vehicular movement and comprehensive logistic network and plan needed to be tabled before giving the green signal to the issue itself.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Environmental Economics, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2012







Post a Comment